Hungary CPI likely down on strong base effects
Hungary's consumer inflation is likely to have eased last month on the back of potentially "very strong" base effects, London-based emerging markets economists said prior to Wednesday's data release.
An Econews survey revealed forecasts varying in a narrow range from 5.4% to 5.6%.
Year-on-year headline CPI inflation surged to a considerably north-of-the-consensus 5.9% rate in February.
Economists at JP Morgan said they expect inflation to have slowed down to 5.6% in March, due to base effects in food and fuel. Fuel prices jumped 3.4% month-on-month in March 2011, "while we estimate they rose about 1.5% this March ... Food prices rose 2.5% (month-on-month) in March 2011 while we estimate they rose about 1% last month".
"We expect inflation to remain above 5% through 2012 and to fall to 3.5% in 2013 as the impact of the tax hikes falls out", JP Morgan's London-based analysts said.
Economists at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch's London-based research unit - BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research - also said that high base effects due to food and fuel prices last year should see slower inflation in March, possibly down to 5.5% on a year-on-year basis. However, inflation will likely trend "well above 5%" for most of this year, driven by VAT hike, past HUF weakness and oil prices.
Analysts at 4cast, a major London-based financial consultancy, said they expect CPI to have decelerated to 5.4% year-on-year in March. "There are very strong base effects that are behind the deceleration of the y/y measure, with a massive price spike (in March last year) in fuel (3.5% m/m) and sugar prices (29.6% m/m) complemented by an electricity price increase and a hike in the prices of regulates services".
Richter Shareholders Approve HUF 423/Share Dividend
Liz & Chain Rooftop Bar Debuts Sustainable Cocktails
SUPPORT THE BUDAPEST BUSINESS JOURNAL
Producing journalism that is worthy of the name is a costly business. For 27 years, the publishers, editors and reporters of the Budapest Business Journal have striven to bring you business news that works, information that you can trust, that is factual, accurate and presented without fear or favor.
Newspaper organizations across the globe have struggled to find a business model that allows them to continue to excel, without compromising their ability to perform. Most recently, some have experimented with the idea of involving their most important stakeholders, their readers.
We would like to offer that same opportunity to our readers. We would like to invite you to help us deliver the quality business journalism you require. Hit our Support the BBJ button and you can choose the how much and how often you send us your contributions.
