The Concorde analysts predicted that INA's third-quarter losses of HRK 481 million (€66.34 million), weak demand, a further fall in refining margins, the forint's weakening against the dollar and a 10% quarterly based decline in the price of gas would weigh on MOL's third-quarter profits.

Refining margins are dropping because the Ural/Brent differential, a price difference between the Ural oil refined and Brent oil used as a benchmark for sales, was squeezed further in Q3 to $0.5 per barrel, Econews adds. The Ural/Brent differential was quoted by chief executive Jacek Krawiec of Poland's largest refiner, PKN Orlen, at the end of last month.

Concorde Securities has reduced MOL's estimated 2009 net earnings-per-share by 13% to HUF 722 and 2010 net earnings-per-share from HUF 1,818 to HUF 1,729, though maintained the year-end fair market value of the company's shares at HUF 13,130.

The analysts predicted that MOL's refining and retail operations generated losses of HUF 2 billion in the third quarter, noting that INA sustained HUF 7 billion in refining losses during the period.

Concorde estimated that MOL posted operating profit of HUF 30 billion in the third quarter of 2009, compared to HUF 36.6 billion in Q3 of 2008, while the company generated net profit of HUF 24 billion in third quarter of this year, compared to net losses of HUF 4.9 billion in Q3 of last year.

MOL will publish third-quarter financial results on Thursday. (MTI – Econews)